ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

VolatilitySubscribe to Volatility

FII Trading Activity and Intraday Volatility

This paper investigates whether the trading activity of foreign institutional investors adversely affects (intraday) volatility in the Indian stock markets. It reports that aggregate trading activity of FIIs dampens market volatility whereas aggregate trading activity of domestic investors exacerbates volatility. Further, the paper finds that positive shocks in aggregate trading activity have a greater impact than negative shocks; this asymmetry is stronger for aggregate domestic trades. Using a proprietary data set, the paper also relates individual stock volatility to tick-by-tick transaction volume, conditional on trader type and transaction type. The intraday results show that trading among FIIs does not increase stock volatility, but when FIIs sell to domestic clients or when domestic clients trade amongst themselves, volatility increases.

Calm before the Storm?

It is generally believed that India is doing far better than most emerging market economies in these times of global economic turmoil. Emerging markets are facing capital flight, with large-scale outflows, especially since the second half of 2015, with the trend expected to continue in 2016. India has been less affected than others, but is clearly vulnerable due to the large number of Indian firms that are exposed to external borrowings, a weak rupee, a year or more of declining merchandise exports, falling corporate profitability, and stressed corporate balance sheets.

Arecanut after Gutkha Ban

The collapse of arecanut prices after the ban on gutkha imposed by some states has plunged farmers into a crisis and lack of export avenues has further exacerbated the situation. Along with an MSP policy for arecanut to assist the beleaguered farmers, intercropping with remunerative crops can also be considered as a safeguard against income uncertainty.

Volatility of Stock Returns

This paper investigates the volatility of stock returns in some Asian emerging markets in terms of the volatility of domestic and external factors. We found that both domestic macroeconomic variables and international variables are found to have explanatory power for stock return volatility. The evidence strongly suggests the presence of a significant contagion effect and integration of capital markets in this region. We also document that the role of government in terms of fiscal and monetary policy in the smooth functioning of the stock market is crucial in this region.
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