Uttar Pradesh

Analysis of the February 2002 assembly elections in UP and their outcome: the issues, the division of seats among the electoral alliances, the composition of candidates of different parties, the gains and losses of the parties in terms of seats and vote shares for the whole state and for different regions, voter preferences for parties by caste and other characteristics and the impact of the election campaigns on the performance of the parties.

Three developments, namely, the decline of parties, poor governance and a growing financial crisis with negative economic growth are collectively responsible for the political instability Uttar Pradesh has experienced. Due to ethnic mobilisation, parties confined to their narrow sectarian bases have been unable to aggregate public opinion, obtain majority support and form stable governments. This has led to short-lived coalitions, which have not been able to formulate long-term policies that can address the felt needs of the people contributing in turn to the breakdown of governance and instability. Fiscal indiscipline by governments has also pushed the state into a debt trap and serious economic decline, which is responsible for the disillusionment among the electorate witnessed in the recent elections. These negative features have developed since the late 1980s. The paper concludes that reform of parties is an urgent necessity without which the prospects of a functioning party system, effective governance and political stability remain dim.

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Though the UP government claims that its decision to implement the Hukum Singh Committee's recommendations will promote an equitable system of job reservation, it also serves up for the BJP a master electoral stroke as it seeks to woo the traditional support base of its major rivals, the SP and the BSP.

The recent electoral history of UP that has witnessed the growth of parties representing the lower and middle castes speaks of a politics of more competition and democracy. But as this paper argues, though peasant and caste mobilisation may have challenged upper caste/ class domination, this has not necessarily promoted policies of public expenditure for services benefiting the poor, nor has there been implementation of developmental programmes that address their vital concerns.