ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

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Why Corporate Houses Should Not be Allowed to Promote Banks: A Reading List

The new proposal by an RBI Internal Working Group to allow large corporate/industrial houses to float banks poses various risks for the banking sector.

Central Bank Profits in National Accounts

For macroeconomics, the government is divided into the central bank and the treasury. Positive profits recorded by the first are cancelled out as a negative item in the second. However, a debate has been generated by the transfer by the Reserve Bank of India of a record surplus to the coffers of the overnment. The issue is examined in a stock-flow-consistent model. A tension is found to reside in the pledging of profits for advances to banks on the one hand, and reducing the government budget deficit on the other. In the case of India, we conclude that central bank profits are intended to substitute for taxation.

Surging Reserves

Only greater stability and absorptive capacity can ensure productive use of funds.

Inflation Convergence and Anchoring of Expectations in India

Careful research on the inflation targeting regime’s impact on anchoring inflation expectations, as well as an empirical examination of convergence, is used to assess the direction of convergence between core and headline inflation, as well as the efficacy of the expectation channel compared to the aggregate demand channel of monetary transmission. There is evidence of more anchoring, with the Reserve Bank of India communications as well as headline inflation affecting short-run inflation expectations and core inflation dominating in the long run.

Can Payments Banks Succeed?

Recently, the Reserve Bank of India has begun licensing a new kind of retail bank, called payments banks, for the hitherto financially excluded. The regulator’s argument that technological innovation will allow payments banks to achieve a seemingly impossible trilemma of financial inclusion while still being competitive and profitable is examined. The article concludes that amelioration of this trilemma will require the regulatory orientation to fundamentally change, and for the state to provide a kind of public good to all payments banks.

The Judiciary and the Stressed Assets Resolution

When defaulting borrowers are unable to pay their overdue amounts, the matter invariably lands up with the courts for settlement through a court-regulated process of lenders taking possession of assets and their sale. However, recently some borrowers have challenged the resolution scheme designed by the Reserve Bank of India. The outcome of the judiciary-led resolution processes in the past and the recent judicial intervention are examined.

What is the Story of Black Money in India?

Ill-conceived policy and weak laws aid the flow of unaccounted money in India.

On Monetary Economics

Monetary Policy in India: A Modern Macroeconomic Perspective edited by Chetan Ghate and Kenneth M Kletzer, Springer, 2016; pp xiii+652, price not indicated.

How Did Central Bank Independence Become the Norm?

Priests of Prosperity: How Central Bankers Transformed the Postcommunist World by Juliet Johnson, New Delhi: Speaking Tiger, 2016; pp xv+292, ₹995.

Engineering Banking Sector Recovery and Growth

The idea of “bail-in” in cases of serious banking instability has been widely discussed in India ever since the introduction of the Financial Resolution and Deposit Insurance Bill. Given the large non-performing loans of public sector banks, the Government of India and the Reserve Bank of India as the regulatory authority have to quickly act to ensure that public confidence in the soundness of commercial banks is not breached. In this context, three approaches are explored that could be adopted either individually or in a variety of combinations in different proportions essentially to secure banking stability. The bail-in idea should not be considered except in extreme conditions of large financial stress. The idea could be tried even before the extreme situation arises with provision of incentives.

The Story of Currency in Circulation

The impact of demonetisation on the movement of currency in circulation in India over time is examined. Four different models of currency in circulation are used to estimate these models using weekly data from April 1992 to October 2016. An analysis of out-of-sample forecast performance of these models prior to demonetisation reveals that the series could be forecast well before this event. Out-of-sample forecast errors of these models during the post-demonetisation period are, therefore, interpreted as shocks due to demonetisation. As far as weekly growth rates of the series are concerned, we observe no major change in intra-month seasonality in currency in circulation once the shock due to demonetisation mitigated.

‘Riskless Capitalism’ in India

A study of the financial processes underlying India’s high-growth trajectory of the 2000s and its relationship with “riskless capitalism,” a term first used by Raghuram Rajan in November 2014, finds that the Indian growth story cannot be over-simplistically explained as a result of “market-oriented” reforms. Public sector bank credit-financed investments, particularly in the infrastructure sector, played a significant role in sustaining growth, most crucially after the global economic crisis. Such a growth trajectory, however, proved to be unsustainable with the expansionary phase coming to an end in 2011–12 and bad loans piling up in the banking system.

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