ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

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The ‘What,’ ‘Why,’ and ‘How’ of a Widening Current Account Deficit

The reason for the increase in the current account deficit during first quarter of fiscal year 2022–23 is analysed. One reason for the widening of CAD has to do with India’s growing dependence on fossil fuels. There is also an element of lack of price competitiveness that is hurting exports. India is exporting low-valued technology-intensive goods whereas importing high-valued technology-advanced goods. The Government of India and the Reserve Bank of India are taking adequate measures to control the widening trade deficit. While some of these measures are yielding results in reducing CAD, external factors such as geopolitical tensions and the United States Federal Reserve System’s move of quantitative tightening are making CAD difficult to control.

Monetary Policy Announcements of the Reserve Bank of India and the Role of Information Shock

Inflation-targeting central banks supplement their monetary policy announcements with communication in the form of speeches and publication of text documents. The markets react to the surprise component of the rate action and the communication by the central bank. Thus, the monetary surprise derived from the reaction of markets, following a policy announcement, is agglutinated with the central bank information. The present paper attempts to identify and examine the efficacy of such an information shock in influencing the inflation expectations of households, interest rate expectations of agents, output and inflation.

Monetary Policy Debates in the Age of Deglobalisation

This article is the fi rst in a series of two articles on monetary policy debates in the age in which deglobalisation is a buzzword. The ongoing monetary policy debates of the age will be discussed by focusing on macroprudential measures, capital controls and central bank independence in Part II.

Words That Send Waves to the Indian Stock Market

The study draws attention to the Reserve Bank of India’s communication as a policy tool and its impact on market participants. It first aims to quantify the qualitative variable—communication by employing textual analysis methods. The investigation starts by extracting the tone of monetary policy statements and trace its transmission on market sentiment in the presence of various informational, macroeconomic, and financial controls. The work concludes that market participants draw inferences from the tone of the RBI’s monetary policy statement and update their information set about the present state and prospects. 

A Horse Race among the Alternative Taylor Rule Specifications

The paper estimates a slew of augmented Taylor rule specifications using call and treasury bill rates. After accounting for break points, we calculate the output gap based on a single-index dynamic factor extracted from monthly high-frequency indicators that are representative of broad sectoral activity. In our study, we found that interest rates in India are mostly in line with the augmented Taylor rule specifications after the Reserve Bank of India started using flexible inflation targeting.

Monetary Fiscal Coordination and the Evolution of Public Debt

Using an accounting framework, this article simulates the evolution of the debt ratio based on four policy interventions. It recommends pursuing an expansionary monetary policy combined with an equally active and complementary fi scal policy. The article also says that monetary policy should target the debt ratio, while fi scal policy should target output.

Is the Economy Heading towards Stagflation?

Erratic fiscal and monetary policies tend to slow down growth and fuel inflation.

 

Reviving the Lending Appetite of Banks

The flow of bank credit is crucial to revive the economy. The fear of potential asset quality woes has reduced the risk appetite of banks. Going beyond the restructuring support, banks need policy support by relaxations in prudential norms in the near term to be normalised in the next four–fi ve years. Coping with the adversities of the pandemic needs a collaborative policy support of all stakeholders to step up the lending appetite.

Price Risk of Central Government Securities in India

The study examines the determinants of price risk of the central government securities in India using their daily trading data comprising of 81,384 observations during the period 2011 to 2020.

Evolving Contours of Monetary Policy

Monetary policy has emerged as an important tool of economic policy both in developed and developing economies. The monetary and financial system is far more complex today than it has been in the past. Financial intermediation has reached a high level of sophistication, which has itself become a source of concern. The impact of monetary policy action can be transmitted through a variety of channels, some of which though recognised in the past, have become more important. While the traditional issues such as the objectives of monetary policy and the possible trade-off among them remain relevant, they need to be related to the far-reaching changes in the institutional environment at home and abroad. The changing objectives of monetary policy, newly evolving instruments of monetary control and the transmission mechanism and issues related to autonomy in the pursuit of monetary policy are examined.

 

Time-varying Effect of Inflation Uncertainty

This paper investigates the effect of the uncertainty associated with the inflation, on inflation over time using the monthly wholesale price index data for the time period 1964–2016 and applying a stochastic volatility in mean model with the time-varying parameter. The evidence indicates a mixed impact as both positive and negative estimates are obtained.

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