Macroeconomics

The paper picks up what can be called as a thread of discontentment in conventional macroeconomics through a brief review of literature, carefully chosen to bring home the importance of micro, to justify that it can give a realistic framework of analysis of the economy. To support research for validation of alternative theories challenging the rational approach, deeply rooted in the general equilibrium theory, we need empirical evidence linking the micro with the macro. The idea is to seek conformance of these theories based on ground realities and to consider institutions and governance as important components of this analysis. The existing statistical system in India needs to be reoriented following the System of National Accounts 2008 on microdata to capture distributional characteristics of macroaggregates. There is a new direction in applied econometrics based on the idea of stochastic equilibrium which is testable using microdata. The paper touches upon this idea citing a single work.

Generally, the fiscal implications of social protection programmes are evaluated, but not so much on the economic impacts these schemes have on macro aggregates such as output, employment, income and revenue. This motivated us to evaluate the economic impact of three major social protection programmes, namely, the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, Indira Awaas Yojana, and the National Social Assistance Programme in 2011-12 using a social accounting matrix. It is found that these programmes have significant impacts on output across different sectors of the economy, on income generation and distribution of different household classes in urban and rural areas, on employment across different sectors of the economy, and even on government revenue generation.

The International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook of April 2016 bodes that emerging market economies, including India, are at risk of sudden capital outflows. The IMF once again makes a case for its conventional, much-discredited tools to manage this risk. To repeat these recommendations, that on many occasions have only worsened crises, is to encourage complacency.

Monetary policies in advanced economies and emerging markets face quite different challenges at the current juncture. In the advanced countries, current dilemmas derive from the normalisation of unconventional monetary policies. The short-term dilemma is to determine when to start exiting extraordinary policies and selecting appropriate tools, as conventional tools may not be very relevant during this phase. The medium- to long-term challenges relate to the sequencing, pace and mechanics of normalisation. Monetary policy in emerging markets needs to cope with the familiar dilemmas of fiscal dominance, the growth-inflation trade-off and the "impossible trinity." With fiscal parameters in control, and food and commodity prices subdued, the chief dilemma currently confronting emerging markets involves a trade-off between targeting divergent domestic and external cycles. Although they are now better placed to absorb a sudden stop, the impact is likely to be differential, with those with weaker macroeconomic parameters suffering greater pain.

While Keynes was sceptical of the efficacy of monetary policy , the current mainstream macroeconomic consensus , "New" Keynesian macroeconomics , accords it primacy in the process of maintaining both price and output stability. This consensus depends on three relationships: demand is inversely dependent on the interest rate, inflation is positively related to the output gap and the central bank can control interest rates to achieve an optimum combination of price and output. This paper presents a theoretical critique of this consensus from an "old" Keynesian perspective since Keynes had raised fundamental objections to each of the three relationships .