ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

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Indian Statistical System at the Crossroads

The modernisation project was apparently the ultimate objective of the flurry of initiatives of the Department of Statistics (DoS). The paper in this part analyses the contents of the project and the philosophy, strategies and approach that shaped it, and brings out its serious implications for the Indian statistical system (ISS). The project is formulated with the short-term objective of meeting the requirements of Special Data Dissemination Standards (SDDS) of the IMF and for monitoring poverty. By design it does not address the problems and development of the ISS. Instead, it established the NSSs as an alternative system to ISS, and aims for a massive expansion of the NSSO and modernise its operations. The project covers only marginally the modernisation of other sub-systems, and where it does so it does not address the vital problem of collection of data and their quality. It requires the government of India to adopt measures that will centralise the statistical system of the country. The paper shows that the project, driven not by national needs but by international demands for data, and based on unjustified NSSO expansion, will lead to the neglect of ISS. The paper ends with broad suggestions for reformulation of the project, and a call to state governments to set their statistical house in order and to beware of the emerging tendencies to centralise the ISS.

Is the IMF a Lender of First or Last Resort?

The IMF may have acted as a crisis manager and crisis lender but it lacks the very basic attribute of a lender of last resort, which is the political and legal prerogative to create high-powered money without limit. Further, the entire spirit and intent of the Fund's policy on use of its general resources is to encourage early recourse to its financial facilities and to ensure that liquidity crises do not develop into solvency crises.

Calcutta Diary

It is not any extraordinary development that the US government has of late decided to go public with its choice of heads of states and prime ministers of countries located in different continents. The Palestinians have been told in no uncertain terms that, no fooling, should they want a state of their own, they must ditch Yasser Arafat as their leader and choose one more to the liking of the United States.

International Financial Liberalisation

Theory offers a number of plausible benefits from international financial liberalisation. However, a careful examination of available empirical literature on the subject suggests much less reason to be sanguine about the benefits. In view of the widelynoted concerns regarding short-term indebtedness, a strong case can be made for the setting of prudential limits on the amount of short-term debt that a country can accumulate. Somewhat less clear is what steps need to be taken to reduce vulnerability due to uncovered long-term foreign currency borrowing.

India's Foreign Exchange Reserves

The questions addressed in this paper are: What are forex reserves? Why hold forex reserves and how did the policy evolve? What is the appropriate level of reserves? How does the current status appear in terms of indicators of adequacy of reserves? The author also focuses on several aspects of forex management such as the implications for quasi-fiscal deficit and communication policy of the RBI. The issues in regard to policy and management of forex reserves in India are posed in some detail. The concluding part contains some random thoughts from a futuristic perspective.

People's Movement against Global Capitalism

In the post-cold war world, issues of equality and social justice still remain vital concerns. As the increasing gap between rich and poor countries, and the growing desperation of the poor and the unemployed reveal, market economy is not an all-encompassing panacea and it thus becomes necessary to find an alternative. It is here that civil society and the local community must have the space to act and where necessary even solicit the state's intervention - a moving idea behind those protest movements seen earlier this year. The challenge of the new century is to bring these ideas together in a new consistent design, towards a "mobilisation against globalisation" through which a more humane and equitable economic and social order will possibly take shape.

Restructuring Argentina's Debt: How Is It Going to Happen?

In the case of Ecuador about a year ago, to effect sovereign debt restructuring, lawyers turned to a solution embedded in the bond contracts themselves, using what is termed as an 'Exit Consent' offer. The lessons of the Ecuador experience are very relevant to Argentina today as a possible way to restructure its debt without the need for either a bail-out brokered by, say, the IMF or an international bankruptcy regime.

Fiscal Transparency

What one expected from the Report of the Advisory Group set up by the Reserve Bank of India (RORB) to assess conformity to the guidelines specified in the IMF's Fiscal Code was an in-depth exploration of compliance, beneath the formal provisions in place. The peculiar genius of Indian misgovernance is that, while complying with transparency requirements in a superficial sense, there are enough exceptions and anomalies tucked away in the system for it to achieve obfuscation to an impressive degree. The Group was advantageously placed in terms of its membership to ferret out examples where there is de jure compliance, but none de facto. It does not do this. Further, the RORB is largely confined to compliance at the central government level. It does deal to some degree with inter-government issues between centre and states, but not with state-local issues.

Calcutta Diary

Climbing down from the high horse it was accustomed to ride, the IMF is now telling the poor countries that, in order to stimulate growth, they could lower lending rates; market forces may for the present be forgotten. Why, the Federal Reserve System in the US has, since beginning of the year, lowered its prime rate on as many as seven occasions. So, please do as the Americans do.

Determinants of Sovereign Borrowings from IMF

The article delineates the IMF's rationale for its role in the international economy; particularly in helping those countries that are going through balance of payments crises. The authors attempt to decipher whether the actual lending pattern of the IMF conforms to this rationale. This is done in the context of panel data models for several groups of countries. There appears to be some arbitrariness in the lending pattern of the IMF.

Sri Lankan Economy in Turbulent Times

Political crises and economic mismanagement are to account for the grave state of Sri Lanka's finances. While reform programmes under the aegis of the IMF promise some succour, these are accompanied by strict conditionalities. The new Sri Lankan government has thus to take some vital political decisions - negotiating with the LTTE to end the long-drawn civil strife in the north-east and implement a harsh budget that will assist a revival of the economy in the long run.

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