ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

GrowthSubscribe to Growth

Post-COVID-19 Paths to Fiscal Consolidation

In order to analyse how the excess of growth over the real interest rate can best contribute to Indian post-COVID-19 debt adjustment paths, the article draws on historical experience, past adjustment episodes and special features of emerging markets. It notes that a countercyclical primary deficit will contribute, and together with a substantial g–r gap, lower debt most efficiently, creating space for adequate fiscal response to future shocks.

Globalisation and the Indian Farmer

The article analyses the impact of globalisation on income and levels of living in the rural sector. It also discusses the changes in India’s stance on food security in global negotiations.

The Impasse over GST Compensation

The GST council should arrive at a consensus to compensate the states for revenue shortfalls.

Rapid Growth of Private Universities

Over the last two decades India has witnessed a rapid rise in the number of private universities. Various state governments have encouraged and justified this growth in order to increase enrolment in higher education, and private capital has welcomed this state encouragement. However, the implications of this move on access to higher education and the variety of other challenges that it presents are debated. Based on higher education enrolment data from the All India Survey on Higher Education, this paper attempts to study the social and academic character of universities to understand the consequences of the rapid growth of private universities for the university space as a whole.

Inclusive Fiscal Adjustment for Reviving Growth

Unrealistic revenue projections leading to strong expenditure compression is primarily responsible for India’s growth deceleration. Growth will decelerate further without a programme of deep fiscal adjustment. How a fiscal space, amounting to over 6% of the gross domestic product, can be freed through such an adjustment programme is demonstrated. This space can be potentially used for an inclusive public expenditure-led strategy for reviving growth.

Community Participation in Effective Water Resource Management

The initiation of the growth process in the rural economy in India, which is predominantly agriculture-based, needs optimum allocation and careful management of scarce water resources for irrigation. Using primary data, the impact of a tripartite institutional framework—comprising a non-governmental organisation, the funding agency, and the people (forming a community-based organisation)—on rural sustainability is examined. Tobit analysis is used to evaluate the impact of participation on rural sustainability. The results establish that community participation is critical in enhancing rural sustainability in terms of managing indigenous water harvesting structures like johad s.

Growth, Employment and Labour through a Budget Lens

Despite the rhetoric in the budget speech of the finance minister, the larger picture emerging from the recent data is a slowdown in growth and a net decline in employment. Not only is this a case of jobless growth, but also one of job-displacing growth. Men have gained and women have lost. The rural economy has suffered the most. In the meantime, there is a process of downgrading the rights of labour. There is very little to cheer about the economy.

Absolute Decline in Employment from 2013 to 2016: In Numbers and Graphs

Employment growth in India slowed down drastically during the period 2012 to 2016, after a marginal improvement between March 2010 and March 2012, according to the latest available employment data collected by the Labour Bureau.

Problems of Market Economy

Economic Challenges for the Contemporary World: Essays in Honour of Prabhat Patnaik edited by Mausumi Das, Sabyasachi Kar and Nandan Nawn, New Delhi: Sage, 2016; pp 324+xvii, ₹1,195.

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Growth in India

A measure of economic policy uncertainty or EPU for India is constructed to study its impact on the economy. It is found that gross domestic product growth and fixed investment are negatively related to EPU in India. For instance, if the economic uncertainty were to decrease to the level observed in 2005, India's GDP growth would increase by 0.56%, and fixed investment growth would increase by 1.36%. Additionally, a negative correlation between the Bombay Stock Exchange index and EPU in India is observed, suggesting that increases in EPU lower expectations of future growth or increase perceived risk of listed stocks. Lastly, it is found that firm-level capital expenditure rates are lowered when EPU increases.

Demystifying Delusion and Unveiling the Crypt

The Indian Economy in Transition: Globalization, Capitalism and Development by Anjan Chakraborty, Anup Dhar and Byasdeb Dasgupta; New Delhi: Cambridge University Press, 2016; pp xx + 422, price not indicated.

Faltering Manufacturing Growth and Employment

Declining growth and a stagnating employment share of manufacturing in a high-growth regime in India are disconcerting, given the pride of place assumed by manufacturing as the "engine of growth." The sustainability of high growth is linked intrinsically to a trajectory that creates gainful employment. This paper argues that the manufacturing sector, which recorded declining employment elasticity in the organised sector, will not be able to mend the gap between growth and employment. Rather the goal of rejuvenating manufacturing has to be contextualised in a larger strategy of full employment with interventions related to demand structures, technology, size structure of firms, as well as a calibrated engagement with the global market.

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