ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

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Financial Fragility in ‘Mature’ Markets

With rising non-financial corporate debt and evidence of elevated borrowing levels among non-bank financial companies, the fragility resulting from excess leverage has returned to haunt developed country financial markets. The fact that the collapse of a little-known family office firm like...

A New Global Minimum Corporate Tax

Consensus on corporate tax rates can boost India’s revenue mobilisation prospects.

A Performance Appraisal of the Inflation Targeting Regime

The recently published Report on Currency and Finance, 2020–21 of the Reserve Bank of India reviewed the performance of the flexible inflation targeting regime in India. In the light of stylised facts, cross-country experience, and detailed econometric results, the report seemed to suggest that despite several shocks (like demonetisation or introduction of the goods and services tax), a combination of good policy and luck have worked in favour of the success of the FIT regime in India. Going forward, while advocating some nuanced, subtle changes in the operation and administration of the FIT regime, the report called for its continuation as a strategy of monetary policy in India.

Fifty Years of Independent Bangladesh

The Bangladesh model shows how mutually reinforcing economic and social policies foster inclusive growth.

The State of State Finances

Only a generous award by the Fifteenth Finance Commission can restore fiscal balance. */ */

Issues of Compliance in GST

Debates on compliance audits of the goods and services tax will have to move beyond mere “invoice matching” to more holistic approaches for data reconciliation that can enable effective tax enforcements, and compliance risk assessment and mitigation.

Changing Dynamics of Inflation in India

Using the latest consumer price index (combined) series, it is found that the dynamics underlying India’s inflationary process have changed substantially. Significant reduction found in the inflation persistence reflects anchoring of inflationary expectations. Moreover, it is the headline inflation that reverts to the core and not vice versa, as was assumed so far. It implies the absence of any significant second-round effects. These features need to be taken into account for any policy analysis. Attempting to forecast inflation using various econometric techniques, it is found that a combination of alternative models based on mean square errors improves forecast accuracy as compared to any individual model.

Quarterly GDP Estimation

The latest quarterly estimates of gross domestic product by the new National Accounts Statistics methodology are once again in the news for the wrong reasons. With inadequate accurate information available on a quarterly basis, the estimates hardly represent the state of the economy and reflect the effects of demonetisation over the October–December 2016 period.

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