GDP

Most of the investment slowdown debates have been around aggregate investment but disaggregate investment institution- and assets-wise may respond heterogeneously with respect to the macroprudential policy measures. The present study explores the investment dynamics at disaggregate level for 2004–19 in the wake of changing economic environment characterised by active utilisation of monetary and fiscal policies, varying monetary transmission effect, economic uncertainty, business environment, and financial pressures either by credit shortfall or debt overhang.

Over the years, the government has provided tax incentives for companies investing in research and development. Since 2016, the policy has seen an overhaul, with some older incentives withdrawn while new ones being introduced. That year, the government launched the patent box regime and tax holidays for innovation-based start-ups. It also reduced income-tax weighted deduction on R&D expenses from 200% to 150%, which was further reduced to 100% in 2020. Recently, the Union Budget 2022–23 saw the withdrawal of a few customs-duty exemptions for R&D. India has seen relatively low investment in R&D, which calls for policy changes. However, the effi cacy of some of these recent changes is questionable.

Machine learning techniques are now very common in many spheres, and there is a growing popularity of these approaches in macroeconomic forecasting as well. Are these techniques really useful in the prediction of macroeconomic outcomes? Are they superior in performance compared to their traditional counterparts? We carry out a meta-analysis of the existing literature in order to answer these questions. Our analysis suggests that the answers to most of these questions are nuanced and conditional on a number of factors identified in the study.

Slump in consumption, surging prices, and slow growth in key sectors are likely to stall the recovery.

Erratic fiscal and monetary policies tend to slow down growth and fuel inflation.