Banking

The Reserve Bank of India adopted inflation-targeting monetary policy based on the New Keynesian 3-equation model. How realistic are the assumptions, and how effective have monetary policy instruments been in controlling the inflation rate? Given India’s structural specificities, what are the implications of cost-push inflation for policy rate and output gap? This paper addresses these questions by identifying alternative theoretical possibilities within a simple 3-equation model and locating the Indian specificity by estimating the Phillips curve and monetary policy rule equation. The analysis points towards the constraints of monetary policy in India due to presence of a flat Phillips curve and indicates the possibility of adverse effect on output gap due to presence of Taylor’s rule.

It is argued that a key question of the operation of monetary policy is its decomposition into a price effect and an output effect. Specifically, the
association between the easing of global monetary and liquidity conditions on the one hand, and the significant spurt in inflation, on the other, in recent
times is probed to conclude that across the world, there seems to be an association. The issues of monetary stability, price stability and financial stability are also intimately interlinked.

Debt, Trust, and Reputation: Extra-legal Finance in Northern India by Sebastian Schwecke, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2022; pp 372, price not stated (hardcover).

The purpose of this article is to address some of the lacunae in the scale-based framework proposed by the Reserve Bank of India in a discussion paper on non-banking financial companies that have turned a blind eye to the growth aspect and recognising only the stability by minimising the possibility of systemic risk. In this context, the introduction of pyramid-based structure of NBFCs is found to be lacking a common parameter for classification of companies in different layers. Further, the revision of threshold asset size limit for identifying systemically important non-deposit taking NBFCs from `500 crore to `1,000 crore is found be undervalued, which will result into making the smaller asset sized NBFCs subject to stricter prudential norms.

The gradual evolution of industrial credit in India in the last three decades is examined against the backdrop of significant structural change in ownership and regulation in the Indian banking sector. The impact of institutional changes in the Indian banking sector during the post-liberalisation phase, especially in the form of the gradual winding up of development financial institutions, on the institutional credit flow to industry is analysed. There is a significant impact of the changing ownership structure of banks on the sectoral allocation of credit. Based on the analysis of sectoral credit flow from the commercial banks and specialised term-lending institutions in India over the last three decades, the need for creating a professional talent pool within the commercial banks for term-lending as well as lending to small entrepreneurs is underscored.