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Two-child Norm
In July 2021, Uttar Pradesh announced a population policy, the draft of the Uttar Pradesh Population (Control, Stabilisation and Welfare) Bill, 2021. While the contents of the bill are contentious, so is the timing of its tabling in the legislature. In terms of substantive population planning, the draft document is not only detrimental to long-term demographic transition, it has serious repercussions for welfare state mechanisms.
What proponents of the two-child norm, or disincentives to achieve this norm, do not acknowledge is the substantial demographic transition underway in the country. Replacement level, or close to replacement-level fertility, has been reached in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Goa, Andhra Pradesh (AP), Telangana, Himachal Pradesh, Delhi, and Punjab. It is true that the total fertility rate (TFR) is high in Uttar Pradesh (UP), Bihar, Madhya Pradesh (MP), and Rajasthan, but even in these states, the TFR has declined from 3.8 to 2.74 in UP, from 4 to 3.14 in Bihar, from 3.1 to 2.32 in MP, from 3.2 to 2.4 in Rajasthan, and from 2.4 to 2.2 in Assam between the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) round 3, conducted in 2006, and round 4, in 2016.
Demographic Transition
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