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Fallibility of Opinion Polls in India
There are many challenges in conducting election surveys that measure voter preferences correctly and when the results of these surveys are used to make seat predictions the margin of error can be large. As the record of pre-poll opinion surveys in the 2004 and 2009 Lok Sabha elections shows, the opinion polls have many weaknesses while attempting to make forecasts in a complex situation. In such a setting, the polls can be used as covert instruments by political parties to make seat predictions and thereby influence the electorate.
This is a slightly modified version of the article, “Status of Opinion Bills”, which was published in the Web Exclusives section of EPW last week.
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