ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

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A Robust and Forward-looking Industrial Production Indicator

Against the backdrop of growing criticism of the index of industrial production, which provides information only about the past and sometimes fl uctuates wildly, this article seeks to provide a more robust and forward-looking economic indicator of industrial growth. Such an indicator, based on past IIP numbers, can also serve as a benchmark for future IIP numbers when they are released. Using data on the IIP's three sub-series - manufacturing, mining, and electricity - it seeks to isolate the "noise" from the "signal" in two steps, enabling predictions for the two past months and four months into the future using the latest available IIP numbers in any given month.

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