| DISCUSSION |
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| Campaign against Bt Cotton R V Ramana Murthy Since then there is overwhelming evidence of an increase in yield, that has contributed to a record level of cotton production in Gujarat and elsewhere. In the absence of any systematic study to support her, KK re |
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First, KK argues that even in the US, GM seeds produced a lower rate of growth of yield in both soy and cotton. While this argument holds true for soy, it is not borne out by the data on cotton presented by her in Table 2. The rate of growth of yield for the period 1996-2008 (2.3%) is higher than that in the pre-GM years (1.27%). Also, the sub-period 2001-08 witnessed an even higher growth rate of yield of 4.3%. Taking the long-run growth rate over the entire period 1984-2008, it is seen that this is higher than that recorded for the 12-year pre-GM period (1984-96) in the case of cotton. The author should know that while interpreting growth rates, it is the long-term rates that are important, not the short run. The data presented in Table 2 clearly shows that KK’s arguments are valid only for soy, and not for cotton.
Second, KK takes up the case of Gujarat, where the adoption of Bt cotton has been the greatest and today almost 80% of the area is under Bt cotton. The author presents data (Table 4) on area, production and yield, provided by the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI), but completely refrains from using it, because it makes a case against her arguments. Instead, she chooses to quote a letter written in 2005 by the state agriculture secretary to the Genetic Engineering Approval Committee, which says that probably low bollworm incidence along with other conducive factors are
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reasons for such high rates of yield growth
seen in Gujarat, and that a higher yield was
seen in the state even before the introduc
tion of the Bt seed. But the data in the ta
ble gives much more recent figures than
what the 2005 letter refers to. The table
shows that the yield rates came down from
502 kg/ha in 1998-99 to 250 kg/ha in
2001-02 (before Bt adoption) and re
mained low for the next three years, which
were rainfall deficit years, including in
Gujarat. However from 2003-04 onwards,
yield has progressively increased to 797
kg/ha (a 60% hike) in 2005-06. (This
trend is also visible at the all-India level,
see author’s Table 3.)
The period of high yield growth,
2003-07 is one of high adoption of Bt cotton
in Gujarat. As these are also good
monsoon years, KK attributes the yield
improvement to the latter. While no one
denies that a good monsoon is an impor
tant factor, one also cannot deny that
adoption of the Bt-hybrid has contributed
to the yield. There is no way to isolate the
seed factor to argue that it has not made a
contribution. The author attributes yield
growth to two more factors – area under
irrigation and low bollworm incidence.
Yes, assured irrigation is an important
factor in increasing the yield, but adop
tion of hybrid has its own role. Moreover,
how did the bollworm incidence come
down from a time when it was a vexatious
problem during 1997-2001 and how far
has the adoption of Bt cotton contributed
to its decline?
Third, KK contradicts the claims of
B M Khadi (2007) who reports a spectacular
yield growth after the adoption of Bt cotton
in Gujarat, with another selective dated
report for Andhra Pradesh published way
back in 2002-03. This dated report talks
about a large majority of farmers who re
ported a low yield in the very first year of
Bt cotton introduction during 2000-02. Not
only was this the first year of Bt adoption,
it was also a year of an extreme drought.
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sorts to citing a booklet, published by the A P Agricultural University (A P Vyavasaya Panchangam), which is mostly anecdotal evidence on the failure of fertiliser use in yield improvements.
Role of Monsoons
KK begins by making a statement that whenever cotton yield improves, the industry and media attribute it to Bt seed and when yield declines, they put the blame on a bad monsoon. What she ends up doing in the article is exactly reversing this logic; for her, whenever yield improves it is because of a good monsoon, and when yield levels are poor, it is due to Bt cotton. The fact of the matter today is that Bt cotton is widely adopted and has led to a rise in yield and production.
As far as fears about GE technology are concerned, health and safety issues are a genuinely important one. While the European Union has taken a cautious stand, the Indian government does not seem to care. The health implications in the case of Bt brinjal should be thoroughly probed b efore approving it. In cotton too, the danger of toxicity entering the human food chain seems to be a possibility during the extraction of edible oil by crushing of cotton seeds. If the cotton seed is genetically engineered by the toxic to kill the bollworm, it can affect humans too. In such a case, Bt cotton seed crushing may need to be banned. But if the seeds are not crushed, farmers lose some value, and hence the economics of Bt adoption needs to be reworked. Dangers to livestock seem to be remote as animals are rarely known to eat cotton leaves. Hence, the campaigners of anti-Bt should, in fact, focus on health and safety issues, rather than s eeing red herrings in yields and returns. The genuineness and credibility of anti-GE campaign would become suspect, if r esearch is doctored, evidence is selectively read and facts are ignored.
Email: rvramana66@gmail.com
