Farm Output : Wishful Thinking

Wishful Thinking It is becoming clear that there will be a deceleration in economic growth in 2004-05, in much the same manner as in 2002-03 when a severe drought led to a 5 per cent decline in net output in the agriculture sector, which, in turn, pulled down GDP growth. The overall slow-down this year may not end up being as sharp as in 2002-03. There is, however, no escaping from the fact that an indifferent monsoon has caused a decline in kharif production in 2004 and this will surely affect GDP growth in 2004-05. To hope, as the agriculture ministry does, that the rabi (winter) crop will rescue the farm sector and the overall economy, is to only indulge in wishful thinking. A slow-down this year from the 8 per cent growth last year will, of course, mean that the Tenth Plan target of an 8 per cent-plus annual rate of growth has to recede further and further into the horizon.