Forecasting State Domestic Product and Inflation

At present, states in India make their own assessment regarding economic growth for their planning and budgeting purposes. These assessments are mostly derived from judgments rather than from serious econometric modelling. The regional econometric model developed in this paper aims to forecast growth rates of the aggregate and sectoral GSDP for the three states. It attempts to capture the medium-run trends and characteristics of the economy of each state, taking into consideration the structural changes in the Indian economy during the period.