ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

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End of Demographic Transition by 2003 AD

End of Demographic Transition by 2003 AD? P N Mari Bhat I read with interest the recent exchange between K C Seal and P P Talwar [1] and V Gowariker [2] on the possibility of India achieving the replacement-level fertility by the year 2003. As the author of a recent paper on a similar theme in this journal [3] 1 feel obliged to make a brief comment. Like Gowariker, I am not one among those experts in India or abroad who assert that the expenditure incurred on family planning over the last four decades had gone to waste. But 1 do consider Gowariker's prediction that birth rate in India would reach 21 per thousand around 2003 as too optimistic. Given the eminence of the person making this forecast, it has the potential to create considerable confusion all around. Hence we must examine the evidence before us as carefully and as dispassionately as we could.

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