Demographic Transition in India

Demographic Transition in India Vasant Gowariker IN their article 'The Billion Plus Population: Another Dimension' [1] K C Seal and P P Talwar attempt to examine some of the conclusions of my 'I Predict' chapter from The Inevitable Billion Plus book [2]. They broadly agree with my two conclusions (viz, India's population will not exceed China's and not reach a billion mark in this century), but disagree with the other two conclusions and contend that; (a) the natural growth rate, instead of being 1.3 per cent as predicted by me, will be 1,6 per cent, and (b) the net reproduction rate (NRR) of 1, instead of being achieved around 2003 as predicted by me, may not be achieved at least till 2010.