Medium-Term Industrial Prospects

Medium-Term Industrial Prospects Ashok V Desai This first approach to a medium-term, three-year forecast for the Indian economy suggests that the recent sluggishness in industrial growth has been caused by erosion of profit levels and the need for structural adjustment. Profit levels are now rapidly recovering to satisfactory levels. Structural ad- justment is being slowed down by restrictions on import of equipment and technology, but it could still proceed at a respectable pace, The chief bottle-neck is, however, likely to he the balance of payments position, which will become so difficult in the next two or three years as to rule out industrial growth at more than 5 per cent per annum.