Articles by Zafar Sobhan

The aftermath of the uprising by the Bangladesh Rifles in the last week of February poses a major challenge to the two-month old Awami League government of Sheikh Hasina. The government acquitted itself creditably in the crisis, but the civilian government's relationship with the army (which lost dozens of officers in the mutiny) remains tense. A failure to get to the root of the uprising could leave the door open to the forces that wanted to destabilise the newly elected government to strike again.

Both the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and the Awami League need to participate in the elections scheduled for next month, for the process to be credible. The elections are likely to be the fairest ever, but the BNP and its alliance partners have threatened a boycott and if that happens there is likely to be a question mark over the outcome. The intentions of the army are also not clear and there is the possibility of the military retaining significant de facto powers after the polls.

Amidst the threat of chaos and a bloodbath on the streets of Bangladesh, the army backing for a new caretaker government was welcomed. However, questions are now being asked about some of the decisions the army-backed authorities are taking and no firm date has been set for elections this year. And with the entry of Muhammad Yunus into the political fray, the game has become even more muddied.

Two major recent developments in Bangladesh are likely to have an impact on the upcoming elections. One is the decision of the ruling Bangladesh Nationalist Party to enter into an understanding with its hitherto sworn enemy, the Jatiyo Party of former president H M Ershad. The other is yet another instance of explosion of public anger against the government, which however, the opposition Awami League has not been able to capitalise on.