ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

Articles by Valerie KozelSubscribe to Valerie Kozel

A Model-Based Assessment of India's Progress in Reducing Poverty in the 1990s

An econometric model of poverty incidence is calibrated to 20 household surveys for India's 15 major states spanning 1960-1994. The model builds on past research suggesting that the key determinants of the rate of poverty reduction at state level are agricultural yields, growth of the non-farm sector (depending on the state's initial conditions), development spending, and inflation. The model is used to predict the rates of poverty reduction over the period 1994-2000. The overall incidence of poverty is projected to have fallen from 39 per cent to 34 per cent over this period, suggesting that the rate of poverty reduction in the 1990s is slightly lower than the 1980s, and lower than one would have expected given the growth in the 1990s. We offer some explanations as to why the growth process in the 1990s has not done more to reduce poverty in India.

Profile and Diagnostic of Poverty in Uttar Pradesh

Uttar Pradesh is India's largest state and also one of its poorest. Despite recent signs of progress, UP still faces significant challenges in reducing poverty in its various economic and non-economic dimensions and improving security and well-being for all citizens. The poor are a heterogeneous group: they are deprived not only in material terms, but also have low human development, and live in an uncertain and sometimes threatening environment. Lower caste individuals and women face particular difficulties. Poverty is caused by low levels of assets (private, public goods and services, and social capital) coupled with low and uncertain returns. The state faces three major challenges in redressing poverty - first, to expand economic opportunities, second to ensure that the poor are empowered to take advantage of new opportunities in a rapidly changing world, and third to ensure an effective safety net is in place to reduce vulnerability and protect the very poor and destitute.
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