Articles by Tim Dyson

This paper examines the evidence on child mortality in Iraq, with particular reference to the period 1991-2003. It questions recent work which has suggested that excess mortality in the years that followed the first Gulf war was only relatively modest in scale. An integrated account of child mortality trends is assembled. This indicates that mortality rose sharply in the early 1990s. It is likely that the United Nations Oil for Food Programme had a limited beneficial effect during 1998-2001, but this was lost in 2002 and 2003 with the build-up to war and the subsequent US/UK invasion. The dominant picture is one of greatly elevated mortality between 1991 and 2003, with very many excess child deaths.

This paper is a state-level analysis of India's demographic and food prospects. The first part of the paper that contains new population projections argues that future demographic growth will probably be a little less than estimated although the country's population will still go on to exceed 1.5 billion. The second part of the paper assesses the future demand for cereals and other foods in 2020 and concludes that the real production challenge relates to vegetables, fruit and milk.

Bihar Famine, 1966-67 and Maharashtra Drought, 1970-73 The Demographic Consequences Tim Dyson Arup Maharatna This paper compares the demographic consequences of the food crises in Bihar in 1966-67 and Maharashtra in 1970-73 in the light of recent writings by Jean Dreze and Amartya Sen, It argues that while the available data show little sign of excess mortality in Bihar, we probably cannot exclude this possibility Certainly, mortality appears to have risen in the districts of southern Bihar, which were also those most affected by production failure.