Articles by S M Vidwans

The Indian statistical system (ISS) developed essentially as an administrative statistical system decentralised over the states. Since statistics are generated as by-products of administration, the system is the most economical and suitable for our vast country. However, over the last decade, the system of administrative statistics has been deteriorating at its very first stage of data collection due to ebbing efficiency of government administration at all levels, and has almost collapsed in certain important sectors. Since, for the most part, the state governments are responsible for the system, the remedy for its failure lies in exhorting and assisting the state governments to stem its deterioration and bring it back on tracks. The department of statistics (DoS) of government of India, however, viewed the situation differently, and under the pressure of meeting the requirements of Special Data Dissemination Standards (SDDS) of the IMF, engaged itself in a flurry of initiatives since 1998. The DoS perceived the lack of coordination and of modernisation as the major causes of the system's failures. It, therefore, attempted to create an institution endowed with regulatory powers in the field of statistics, and formulate, with World Bank assistance, a project to modernise the ISS. This paper, organised in three parts, attempts to analyse these initiatives, and to highlight their grave implications for the ISS. In this part, the paper gives the background of the development of the ISS, describes the problems it faces at present, and the approach to their resolution suggested by the National Statistical Commission. It discusses the vital issue of desirability of the decentralised structure of the ISS, and points to the adoption of certain modernisation measures that reinforce the emerging tendency to centralisation. Beginning the discussion of its main theme, the paper then critically examines the formal assessment of deficiencies of the ISS made by DoS's secretary, which formed the starting point of DoS's initiatives, and analyses the DoS's proposal for creation of the Statistical Authority in India.

S M Vidwans I APPRECIATE the very fact that Sarker responded (EPW, October 5, 1996) to my paper and unlike others,1 was prepared to engage himself in a discussion of my comments on his. article (EPW, March 12, 1994). Also, I must thank him for correcting my understanding about the dendogram.

Redefining Irrigation Potential Don't Damn the CV Alone S M Vidwans MY critique (EPW, December 4, 1993) of the paper 'Redefining Gujarat's Irrigation Potential' (EPW. June 26, 1993) by D H Parikh, A J Vera and Y K Alagh (PVA for short) showed that PVA's paper failed in its objective of establishing variability of rainfall as the reason for redefining (i e, down-rating) Gujarat's irrigation potential. But, as the critique pointed out, rainfall variation obviously affects irrigation potential in terms of the volume of water stored in the reservoir the very reason why the dependability factor comes into play. If dependability is 75 per cent, in that much per cent of years over a long period full potential will be realised and in 25 per cent less than full. One can therefore think about an average potential that will be obtained over a long period, an average or (I) full potential in 75 per cent of years, and (2) less than full potential less by varying amounts in the remaining 25 per cent. The difference between the full and the average potential gives the extent of down-rating of the former that will be required because of rainfall variation. Thus, the maximum, though unlikely, extent of down-rating will be 25 per cent when dependability is 75 per cent, and 50 per cent when the latter is 50 per cent. It is therefore a truism that full irrigation potential requires to be down- rated on account of rainfall variation; it is surely not a discovery. The only point of interest perhaps is the extent of down-rating and its relationship with rainfall characteristics. Possibly a minor point, it becomes statistically interesting to pursue because PVA raised it and handled it rather unsuccessfully. That is the limited objective of this follow-up paper.

Statistical Mirage of Poverty Alleviation IN their paper 'Rural Poverty in the Semi- Arid Tropics of India' (EPW, March 20-27) R P Singh and P B R Hazell (SH for short) seek to provide "sound empirical evidence on who the poor are, how they can be easily identified, the determinants of their poverty and the likely effectiveness of alternative interventions". In their opinion, this evidence is required for the "efficient design of the targeted assistance schemes" such as the IRDP and the EGS. Making a multivariate analysis of data collected by ICRISAT, they demonstrate that certain policy interventions would be effective in reducing poverty

October 18, 1986 for various provisions" was Rs 1,331.40 crore against Rs 1,246.9 crore in the previous year. Deviating slightly from the Bank's own method of presentation, one gets the following picture in round figures (all in Rs crore): income 1,381; expenditure 411; balance 970; contributions to 'funds' 760; net balance 210, to be transferred to the Central government. The "fund contributions" include Rs 350 crore to the National Rural Credit (Long-Term Opeations) Fund; National Rural Credit Stabilisation Fund Rs 10 crore and the National Industrial Credit (Long- Term Operations) Fund Rs 400 crore. The total in the preceding year was Rs 675 crore.