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The Second Transition Family Welfare to Reproductive Health

factors that can shape the future. One point of interest is that, with or without global trade rules, Europe is Iikely to maintain a 'pyramid of privileges' with respect to its main transactors, in which hierarchy much of Asia belongs in the lower tiers. Another is that China's surge may be constrained by the increasing pull of the home market and by fibre availability. Both conjectures have an echo in, and seem to be validated by post- 1985 Indian trends which reminds one of the many points on which India and China are comparable; scale and diversity, home THE book under review is a collection of papers presented at the seminar on 'Policy Direction and Strategy for Action in Population and Reproductive Health in India' held at New Delhi, December 19-20, 1995. This seminar was organised as part of the Silver Jubilee celebrations of the Population Foundation of India (earlier known as Family Planning Foundation), which was established in 1971 by a group of industrialists including late Bharat Ratna, J R D Tata.

Choosing a Permanent Contraceptive-Does Son Preference Matter

Does Son Preference Matter? S Irudaya Rajan U S Mishra T K Vimala It has been observed that sex preference of children influences a family's fertility decisions. This article examines data derived from a number of surveys to examine whether the acceptance of a permanent method of contraception is associated with the sex composition of living children.

Demographic Transition and Political Transition

Demographic Transition and Political Transition S Irudaya Rajan THE debate on the demographic transition in India among K C Seal and P P Talwar (September 3, 1994), Vasant Gowarikar (December 3, 1994) and P N Mari Bhat (February 4. 1995) have contributed to the understanding of current fertility levels, change over a period of time and the expected time of replacement fertility and the future size of the Indian population. The main focus has been on the future course of fertility decline or as we call it, fertility dynamism in India. The present note is a contribution to the debate.

Heading towards a Billion

Heading towards a Billion S Irudaya Rajan This issue brings together some papers on the Indian Censuses and in particular the 1991 Census, Among the subjects discussed are problems of conducting the census operations and collection of data, especially at the field level, the decline in the sex ratio and in the population growth rate, the employment situation with the focus on women and work, urbanisation, and the nature of demographic transition in India.

China s One-Child Policy-Implication for Population Aging

China's one-child policy has been the subject of much debate ever since it was first adopted. How successful has it been in curtailing population growth ? What will be the age structure in the coming years in China?

Quality of Family Planning Services

Managing Quality of Care in Population Programs edited by Anrudh K Jain; Kumarian Press, West Hartford, Connecticut, USA, 1992; xx + 162. THE book under review is based on papers first presented and discussed at an International Conference organised by the International Council on the Management of Population Programmes (ICOMP), held in Kuala Lumpur, on November 12-15,1990. It consists of seven chapters, an introduction and conclusion by the editor, Anrudh Jain. The seven papers in this volume are organised into two broad categories; managing and improving quality of care (three papers) and measuring and monitoring the quality of services (three papers) along with the definition and impact of quality, again by the editor.

Kerala s Health Status Some Issues

Kerala's Health Status: Some Issues S Irudaya Rajan K S James TAKE away the advances Kerala made in the demographic arena the state may become an addition to the list of HIMARU1 states in India. This is because, Kerala has made enviable progress and is being projected as a striking example for its quick demographic transition without adequate economic backing. Predominantly, in the areas of life expectancy and infant mortality, its achievements are commendable. Kerala has attained a life expectancy of 68 years for males and 73 for females in recent times as against India's figure of 56 for males and 56.5 for females [Mari Dhat and Irudaya Rajan 1990], It has an infant mortality rate of less than one-fourth of India, which stands at 17 per 1,000 live births as of 1991. Various surveys conducted in recent times indicate the faster decline in neonatal mortality (one- month mortality) compared to post-neonatal mortality [Irudaya Rajan and Navaneetham 1993a; National Family Health Survey2 1993]. Moreover, Kerala's fertility transition has always been attributed to its very high literacy rate, especially among women and improved mortality sta- tus [Mari Bhat and Irudaya Rajan 1990].

Decline in Sex Ratio-Alternative Explanation Revisited

Decline in Sex Ratio Alternative Explanation Revisited S Irudaya Rajan U S Mishra K Navaneetham COMMENTING on Kundu and Sahu (hereafter referred as KS) on their note on variation in sex ratio (SR) [October 12,1991], we had provided an alternative explanation for the decline in SR noted in the 1991 Census [December 21, 1991]. Again, Saraswathi Raju and Mahendra K Premi (hereafter referred as RP) have joined the debate neither making any meaningful contribution nor clearing the doubts raised by us [April 25, 1992). RP in their re-examination of alternative explanation have made scathing criticisms 'blindly' against us.

Demographic Transition in Kerala-A Reply

which the population above c = 53.83 is divided; Fi the relative frequency of each fractile group and ci the mid-point of the ith fractile group. In actual fact, we have divided the households consuming more than 295.38 grammes per capita per day into eight fractile groups, each consisting of 10.66 per cent of rural households. Using function (8), we determine the limits (c4, ci+1) within which the fractile groups lie The per capita consumption of cereals corresponding to the mid-point ci. of the ith fractile group is taken to represent the average per capita consumption of that fractile group. This is done with the help of function (9). A similar exercise is carried out to calculate the excess consumption of rural households consuming over 500 grammes per adult. This estimation is carried out separately for the cultivating and non-cultivating households in the populat ion. We have excluded agricultural labour households although some of them may consume in excess of 400 grammes per adult per day.

Decline in Sex Ratio An Alternative Explanation

Decline in Sex Ratio: An Alternative Explanation? S Irudaya Rajan U S Mithra K Navaneetham SURPRISINGLY, the decline in SR as a matter of research has only recently attracted scholars from different disciplines other than trained demographers. Most of them neither provided any meaningful explanation for understanding the disparity/variation nor have added any new hypothesis which can be tested by further analysis. The present reaction on this issue is due to the fact that a reversal trend of 5 units decline was registered between 1981-91 after a positive expected trend of 4 units increase in SR during 1971-81. Up to 1981, the decline in SR was commonly explained by recourse to such features as the undercount of females and other discriminations against women. The 1981 census provided a relief for this explanation and most feminists believed that the increase in SR would continue for ever. In fact the provisional SR of the 1991 census (929) is lower than the 1971 (930). If one explains the present decline in SR with the same yardstick as earlier, it will mean that there is neither any improvement in the quality of census data nor have the measures taken to uplift the status of women been Quite successful. On this count, many scholars have come out with several possible alternative explanations. The article by Amitabh Kundu and Mahesh K Sahu (EPW, October 12) is one among them but has brought more confusion in place of suggesting any meaningful explanation.

Demographic Transition in Kerala Revisited

P N Mari Bhat S Irudaya Rajan Many competing hypotheses about Kerala's demographic transition have flourished and remained untested for long. This article undertakes a thorough review of demographic trends in Kerala by a careful scrutiny of evidence presented by various data sources. By employing a quantitative approach and using data for districts in and around Kerala, the authors test some of the hypotheses put forward to explain the shift in levels of birth and death rates. The article also briefly discusses the implications of the current declines for the future of the Kerala economy and assesses the prospects for a similar change elsewhere in India.

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