Articles by Prannoy Roy

A Quantitative Analysis Ashok Kumar Lahiri Srinivasa Madhur Dipankar Purkayastha Prannoy Roy This paper attempts an empirical investigation of the factors affecting output, prices, wages and raw material costs in the factory sector of Indian industry. It forms part of a larger system of equations which together constitute a macro-econometric model of the Indian economy The focus of the study is on the price-quantity adjustment mechanism in Indian industry with specific attention to the role of government policies and international trade in the determination of output and prices. Since there has been considerable diversity in the behaviour of the different constituents of the industrial sector in India, the model is constructed in a disaggregated four-sector framework classified on the basis of end-use: consumer goods, capital goods, basic goods and intermediate goods.

The Budget, Money and Credit A Macroeconometric Analysis Srinivasa Madhur Pulin Nayak Prannoy Roy The authors here present a model of the fiscal and monetary sectors of the Indian economy for short-term macro economic forecasting and policy formulation and, in particular, for analysing the implications of the annual budget of the Central government for the economy at large. The effect of the budget on certain key macro variables such as money, credit and inflation is sought to be studied with the help of the model It is seen that many of the policy variables in the monetary sector which earlier investigations seemed to find insignificant can in fact be important and effective instruments in the hands of policymakers. It is also found that in formulating its interest rate policy, it is futile for the central bank to raise or lower all rates of interest by a common factor