ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

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Pandemic and the Monetary Policy in the Global North

During the COVID-19 pandemic, expansionary economic policies played an important role in reviving the floundering global economy. In this context, the present paper looks at the effectiveness of monetary policy in the global North in stimulating real economic activity. In an ultra-low interest rate regime, the traditional monetary policy ceases to be effective. Therefore, many developed country central banks adopted a slew of unconventional monetary policy tools to tackle the recession. This paper analyses the unconventional monetary policy tools pursued by the global North with special reference to the United States and argues that the transmission channels of unconventional monetary policy tools to increase effective demand are not always automatic and straightforward. There is strong evidence that while these expansionary measures may have helped during the initial crisis, their effectiveness in reviving sustained economic activity in the medium run is doubtful. On the other hand, there are routes through which increased liquidity created by unconventional monetary policy tools has ended up in the financial sector, thereby leading to an asset price inflation that may not have a net beneficial impact on the real economy.

Money and Finance during the Pandemic and Beyond

With apologies to Gabriel García Márquez’s 1985 novel Love in the Time of Cholera , given the generic themes of most of the papers in this special issue, it could have perhaps been named, “Money, Banking and Finance in the Time of the Pandemic.” But, since the focus of a few of the papers is beyond...

The Union Budget and the Central Bank Digital Currency

The announcement of the introduction of the central bank digital currency was the highlight of the union budget. However, in the absence of any specific official paper as of now, the treatment in the present article is largely speculative. Specifically, it looks at the possible technological and legal implications of the CBDC in light of other country experiences.

A Performance Appraisal of the Inflation Targeting Regime

The recently published Report on Currency and Finance, 2020–21 of the Reserve Bank of India reviewed the performance of the flexible inflation targeting regime in India. In the light of stylised facts, cross-country experience, and detailed econometric results, the report seemed to suggest that despite several shocks (like demonetisation or introduction of the goods and services tax), a combination of good policy and luck have worked in favour of the success of the FIT regime in India. Going forward, while advocating some nuanced, subtle changes in the operation and administration of the FIT regime, the report called for its continuation as a strategy of monetary policy in India.

China-bashing and Post-COVID-19 Narrative

The disruption of supply chains caused by COVID-19 has led to predictions that international firms will relocate production away from China, benefiting other emerging economies, including India. However, China’s integration with the global economy in terms of international finance, investment, construction and as a low-cost location for global production is now so deep that such changes will neither be quick nor painless. In fact, China’s innovations might allow it to even reinforce its position in the global economy.

Trade War and Global Economic Architecture

The recent decision of the United States to impose punitive tariffs on imports from China and the European Union, and the retaliation of these trade partners in tandem, is of concern to the global community. In analysing these contemporary events, it is argued that the genesis of the trade war can potentially be traced to the piling up of global imbalances, and the failure of the global financial institutions or fora—like the World Trade Organization and the International Monetary Fund—to address such imbalances. In such a context, whether the emerging economies have the ability to influence the course and outcomes of the current trade war, and whether this trade war can generate the possibility of reform of the international institutions are explored here.

Questioning the Orthodoxies

Statements like “money, finance and banking are at the crossroads at this juncture” have become a much-used cliché, but tend to be true for most of the recent past. This year, too, is no exception. At home we have seen that credit growth both from banks and non-banks continue to suffer...

Financial Sector in the Budget

The 2020 Union Budget has announced several small steps that could give some fillip to the financial sector in the short run, but the lack of a long-term vision for reviving an economy in downswing remains most conspicuous.

How Much of RBI’s Profit Transfer Is Enough

The Jalan Committee’s recommendations for the Reserve Bank of India to pay dividend to the government out of its current year’s surplus only after meeting the contingency risk buffer is a smart move towards the proverbial act of fine-balancing.This should put all speculations to rest about further transfers out of the central bank’s past reserves.

Much Ado About Nothing

The announcements for the financial sector in the 2019–20 budget are either too little or too grandiose relative to the actual requirements of the sector. Given this, the author questions the razzmatazz about the budget as the “auspicious” occasion for which government policy initiatives need to wait to be announced.

Monetary Policy Transmission in Financial Markets

In the Indian context, a key question is addressed: What has been the influence of monetary policy on different segments of the financial markets? Constructing a structural vector autoregressive model with the monetary policy rate, the pattern of monetary transmission to financial markets is examined over three distinct periods of regime changes in the Indian monetary policy and liquidity management framework. The empirical evidence indicates that there is sufficient period-specific transmission of monetary policy across the different segments of the financial markets. While the transmission of monetary policy to the money and bond markets is found to be fast and efficient, the impact of the policy rates on the forex and stock markets is limited.

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