ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

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Employment and Poverty in 1990s

The release of the Provisional Population Totals based on Population Census 2001 necessitates revisions in the estimates of population and of workforce for 1993-94 and 1999-2000 and hence also in the estimates of labour productivity. Besides carrying out the necessary revisions in the size of the workforce (and in labour productivity), this paper offers a detailed industrial distribution of the workforce as well as an occupation distribution of the workforce based on the additional tables now available from the NSS 55th Round Employment-Unemployment Survey.

Employment-Unemployment Situation in the Nineties

Based on a comparative analysis of the NSS Employment-Unemployment Surveys for 1993-94 and 1999-2000, this paper examines, at the all-India level, the changes in: the size and structure of workforce; the extent of unemployment and underemployment; labour productivity and days worked; and wage earnings per worker and per head of population in rural and urban India. Key results include a slower growth of workforce relative to that of population; a reduction in the share and size of the workforce in agriculture and in community, social and personal services; and widespread gains in labour productivity getting translated into equally widespread and significant growth in average wage earnings per worker and per capita.

NAS-NSS Estimates of Private Consumption for Poverty Estimation

In the context of the controversy over the trends in poverty in India in the 1990s, this paper addresses the question of using the National Accounts Statistics (NAS) estimate of private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) in place of National Sample Survey (NSS) based estimate for calculating the proportion of the population below the poverty line or headcount ratio. A comparison is undertaken for the year 1993-94 between NAS estimate of PFCE and household consumer expenditure estimated from NSS disaggregated across item-groups of consumption and across selected fractile groups of the rural and urban population. Two alternative estimates from NAS - old series in NAS 1998 and the latest revision in NAS 1999 - are compared. Similarly, two alternative NSS estimates are considered - one directly available using a uniform 30-day reference or recall period and a synthetic one constructed to reflect the effect of using non-uniform reference period. The analysis of comparison of these four estimates suggests two major conclusions. One, the issue of accepting NAS estimate of PFCE as more correct and reliable than NSS estimate is far from settled. Two, the item groups that accounted for a very large proportion of the aggregate discrepancy between NAS and NSS estimates had a much smaller budget share in the consumption basket of the bottom 30 per cent fractile group in the rural and urban areas, whereas in respect of item-groups which together accounted for over 75 per cent of the consumption of the bottom 30 per cent, the divergence between the two estimates was much smaller than on the average for all item groups and negative in some cases.

Dimensions of Rural Poverty An Inter-Regional Profile

Inter-Regional Profile L R Jain K Sundaram S D Tendulkar This study considers six inter-related dimensions of poverty and seeks to fa) provide region-level estimates for all the six variables; (b) measure and analyse inter-regional disparities in the indicators of poverty; (c) examine the spatial distribution of regions by reference to the quartile-wise ranking along each of the dimensions of poverty; (d) identify spatial patterns of contiguity by mapping; and (e) analyse the inter-relations among the chosen indicators by means of bivariate quartile-wise cross-tabulation.

Policy on Administered Prices and Deficit Financing

This paper argues that the suggestion that the indirect effects of changes in administered prices on inflation would be offset by the deflationary impact of additional revenue is seriously misleading. The authors also refute the contention that the budget deficit route is more harmful than the once-for-all adjustment in raising administered prices. Finally, the compelling need for taking co-ordinated decisions relating to capacity utilisation, new investment and cost-based pricing across the set of interdependent public sector industries/enterprises is highlighted.

Financing the Step-up in Plan Investment-Administered Price Hikes or Increased Deficit Financing

Financing the Step-up in Plan Investment Administered Price Hikes or Increased Deficit Financing? K Sundaram Suresh D Tendulkar In the context of financing a step-up in Central public sector investment expenditure in the Union Budget for 1986-87, the Finance Minister posed the choice between increased deficit financing and raising administered prices. He revealed his preference for the latter option.

Black Money and Effectiveness of Monetary Policy

Black Money and Effectiveness of Monetary Policy V Pandit K Sundaram IN their latest communication on the question of black money and the effectiveness of monetary policy (EPWt September 8, 1984), Acharya and Madhur (hereafter AM) have sought to defend their modelling of the question and, despite their own doubts about the robustness of their empirical results, have stated that they "continue to subscribe" to their earlier conclusions. Their faith in the one regression equation estimated by them must indeed be overwhelming. For their reply to our critique not only does not squarely face the questions raised in our critique but also fails to recognise the implications of their 'caveats'for the issues at hand.

The Union Budget, 1985-86-An Appraisal

The Union Budget, 1985-86 An Appraisal K Sundaram Suresh D Tendulkar K Krishnamurty The Union Budget for 1985-86 signals a distinct break with the past on three counts: (a) it implies a shift in the ex-ante composition of investment away from the public sector and towards private corporate sector; (b) the incentives offered in the Budget are neutral as regards the choice between consumption and savings; and (c) the fiscal concessions aim at transferring the transactions from the so-called black or the unaccounted segment to the white or accounted segment of the economy. These are all indicative of a significant change in the perceptions of the policy-makers regarding the mainsprings of the Indian growth process.

Registrar General s Population Projections, 1981-2001- An Appraisal and an Alternative Scenario

Registrar General's Population Projections, 1981-2001 An Appraisal and an Alternative Scenario K Sundaram This analysis of the Registrar General's population projections points to the need for a substantial upward revision of the base year population. It also suggests that the likely orders of decline in the gross fertility rates would be much less than what is postulated in the Registrar General's 'medium' projection.

More on Poverty in the MTA -The Case of the Missing Millions

The Case of the Missing Millions K Sundaram SD Tendulkar This paper is concerned with defining the extent of poverty in 1981-82. In doing this as a follow-up to earlier exercises, it indicates the shortcomings in the official estimates as well as in those by a couple of other scholars.

Informal Credit Markets, Black Money and Monetary Policy-Some Analytical and Empirical Issues

Informal Credit Markets, Black Money and Monetary Policy Some Analytical and Empirical Issues K Sundaram V Pandit In a recent paper Acharya and Madhur have sought to examine whether and how far the presence of informal credit markets and black money frustrates monetary policy. They reach the conclusion that "contrary to a view held in some circlesf official monetary-credit policy has on the informal credit market". The' some circles', presumably refers, inter alia, to an earlier paper by the present authors wherein, while discussing the implications of the large volume of liquid wealth arising from cumulation of savings out of black income, they noted that "this liquidity is immune to any monetary fiscal policy", which is quoted by Acharya and Madhur, but also went on to state that "it can move round in the economy creating unpredictable excess demand in several vulnerable sectors of the economy''.

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