Articles by K N Ninan

K N Ninan Against the background of global poverty and income distribution pattern, this paper analyses the trends and causal factors behind rural poverty in India both at the national and state levels during 1957-58 to 1986-87. Adopting an alternate model and categorisation of the time period of analysis into two phases which is empirically and theoretically justified the paper observes that contrary to the findings of other researchers, not only are there distinct time trends in the incidence of rural poverty in India, but also while these trends were positive and significant in Period I (1957-58 to 1968-69), they were negative and significant in Period II (1969-70 to 1986-87). Also, the rate of decline in the incidence of rural poverty in the latter period was much higher than the rate of increase in rural poverty in the preceding period. These observations are valid for both all-India and across states, using alternate measures of poverty, i e, the head count ratio and Sen's poverty index. The paper then attempts both a time series and cross-section analysis of the causal factors behind rural poverty in India, especially probing into the role of agricultural growth, inflation, access to subsidised food through the public distribution system, population pressure on environmental resources, rural consumption levels and inequality, and infrastructure development on the incidence of rural poverty for all-India and across states.



Within Grasp or Elusive Goal?
K N Ninan This paper examines the prospects of India realising her goal of self-sufficiency in oilseeds, in the light of the optimistic crop outlook for oilseeds in 1988-89. While analysing the various policy options for India to become selfreliant in this crucial sector, it suggests that the main constraint for increasing oilseeds production in India is technology It cautions against a strategy of laying sole emphasis on the price mechanism which can only be at the cost of coarse cereals, the main competitors of oilseeds and which are mostly consumed by people with low incomes.

Growth and Area Responses K N Ninan India enjoys the distinction of having the largest cultivated area under oilseeds in the world. Yet the consumption levels of a crucial nutrient like oils and fats in the country are not only below the world average but also far below the minimum nutritional requirements prescribed by the ICMR. The domestic demand for vegetable oils and fats has been rising at a very fast pace whereas domestic output has lagged far behind the growth in demand, forcing the government to resort to large-scale imports of edible oils to bridge this shortfall. Making the country self-sufficient in its edible oil requirements has therefore been accorded priority in our development plans.